As we pass the midpoint of 2025, the freight market continues to change and shift in response to various economic, geopolitical, and industry-specific factors. Since the truckload and containerized shipping sectors are vital components of the logistics industry, understanding their current state and future outlook is crucial for manufacturers, logistics providers, and shippers alike.
We are all navigating ongoing tariff announcements, shifting demand, fluctuating rates, and capacity constraints — especially in the truckload (TL) and ocean freight. This mid-year recap reviews spot and contract rates, capacity, and demand trends, and what lies ahead.
Current State of the Truckload Market
The truckload market has remained steady throughout the first half of 2025, though slightly below the highs seen in previous years. Some recovery is likely in Q3/Q4, due to strong e-commerce activity and a rebound in imports from nearshoring. Consistent freight levels have kept rates relatively stable.
Rising operational costs, however, have continued to put pressure on margins for many carriers. The average cost of diesel fuel, for example, has seen a noticeable increase, impacting transportation costs. In response, carriers are adopting fuel-efficient equipment and exploring alternative fuels.
Additionally, the ongoing driver shortage remains a significant concern, despite efforts to attract new drivers through enhanced training programs and incentives. The American Trucking Association (ATA) estimates a shortage of over 80,000 drivers, creating capacity strain and potential rate hikes in late 2025.
Key Trends in Truckload
- Spot Rates: Recovery Signs Emerging – After several years of inflation-driven rate spikes, truckload spot rates started the year soft, with Q1 rates slightly below 2024 levels. Market forecasts are optimistic about a late-year uptick. Spot rates could rise in Q4 with tightening demand and capacity shifts.
- Contract Rates: Stability Amid Capacity Surplus – Contract rates have remained stable with very modest increases year-over-year. The soft growth reflects adequate capacity in the market and cautious carrier expansion. Many carriers remain focused on protecting margins versus chasing volume through aggressive rate hikes.
- Capacity: Loose but Fluctuating – Ample capacity persists, driven by cautious carrier hiring and equipment investments. The surplus limits rate increases but allows for more negotiating leverage. Capacity tightness and fluctuations, however, are expected later in the year.
- Demand: Slower but Resilient – Freight demand in 2025 remains lower than the demand hikes seen in previous years. While marketing activity and consumer spending have softened, we are seeing some growth in certain areas due to e-commerce and nearshoring.
Market Outlook on Containerized Shipping
The containerized shipping sector has experienced its share of ups and downs in recent years, post-pandemic. Regaining some stability in 2025, coupled with the recent reorganization of carrier alliances, has allowed for more predictable shipping schedules. Demand for imports surged, particularly in North America and Europe, which in turn is driving utilization rates near capacity.
Despite the positive trends, the industry continues to face challenges. Port congestion at major hubs, like Los Angeles, Vancouver, and Rotterdam, is causing extended transit times, longer vessel wait times, and higher costs. In response, shipping lines are working to optimize their schedules, implementing blank sailings, and investing in technology for improved efficiency.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, have contributed to market uncertainty. Ongoing tariff developments will continue to impact shipping patterns globally, pushing some shippers to reassess sourcing strategies and routing. As a result, the containerized shipping landscape remains dynamic, requiring businesses to stay agile and adaptable.
Key Trends in Ocean Shipping
- FCL: Lower Volumes and Rate Volatility –Analysts project a slight global decline in container volumes this year, especially with the likelihood of U.S. imports from China dropping in response to tariff tensions and shifting sourcing strategies. Ocean rates, especially on China-U.S. trade lanes, also remain volatile.
- LCL: Congestion and Complexity – LCL shipments are being strained by port congestion at West Coast gateways, wildfires in Canada, and inland rail and warehouse capacity pressures. Tariff changes and inventory adjustments by shippers continue to create a fluctuating, reactive market in 2025.
- Capacity and Disruptions – Global vessel capacity is up about 6% in 2025, but weak demand and blank sailings have led to rate instability. Routing changes to avoid certain areas like the Suez Canal continue to add costs and delays.
What This Means for Shippers and Carriers
Shippers:
- Leverage Capacity Surplus – With ample truckload capacity, contract rates are stable, allowing shippers a chance to negotiate better pricing and service terms.
- Expect Ocean Volatility – Ocean freight rates will remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and port disruptions. Shippers should consider flexible shipping plans and diversified routing to mitigate risks, especially as we head into peak hurricane season.
- Balance the Freight Mix: Evaluate the balance between TL and LTL, FCL and LCL, or the benefits of Freight Consolidation to control costs and meet delivery expectations as volume continues to fluctuate.
- NMFTA Changes: The NMFTA rolled out new freight classifications in July 2025, moving toward a more density-based system and streamlining operations. The new classifications will likely impact rate structures and lead to closer freight auditing. (Learn more here)
For Carriers:
- Prioritize Margin Control: Maintaining pricing discipline through GRIs and capacity control remains critical in a slow-growth market.
- Invest in Technology: Digital freight matching, predictive routing, and AI can help optimize asset utilization and service delivery.
- Prepare for Rebound: Strategic fleet investments and driver retention programs will position carriers to capitalize on late-year demand growth.
What to Watch in the Second Half of 2025
As we move into Q3/Q4 of 2025, several key factors will likely shape the truckload and shipping markets:
- Trade Policy and Tariffs: The Trump Administration continues to roll out reciprocal tariff rate adjustments, creating market uncertainty. Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly regarding U.S.-China tariffs, will directly impact containerized import volumes and ocean freight pricing in the second half of the year and beyond.
- Economic Indicators: Consumer confidence, manufacturing PMIs, and inventory levels will signal whether freight demand strengthens or softens further.
- Infrastructure Upgrades: Improvements in ports, rail intermodal, and border crossings (especially in the U.S. and Mexico) could boost freight flow efficiency.
- Environmental Regulations: Growing pressure for sustainable shipping practices, beyond softening regulations in the U.S., may alter carrier operations and equipment investments, impacting capacity and rates.
- Technological Advancements: The integration of technology and data analytics will continue to accelerate, along with an increasing demand for improved efficiency and visibility.
- Capacity Challenges: Carriers will need to explore innovative ways to attract and retain drivers as the driver shortage remains a pressing issue.
The 2025 freight market presents a complex mix of challenges and opportunities, shaped by trade policies, economic conditions, technological tools, and changing market expectations. Truckload freight shows signs of soft demand and ample capacity, though tightening and rate hikes could emerge in the back half of the year. Ocean freight faces volatile rates and lower volumes, fueled by trade uncertainties and operational disruptions.
Overcoming these challenges through the second half of 2025 will require insight and adaptability. Shippers and carriers that stay informed, integrate technology, and optimize their networks will be best equipped to navigate the evolving market and benefit from any potential rebounds.
TOC Logistics is a full-service global freight forwarder for inbound manufacturing to and from North America. Contact our team today to learn how freight management and consolidation can help you stay ahead of market shifts in 2025, both internationally and domestically.