Ocean and air-import programs have been unpredictable—from plentiful capacity and low prices one week to reduced sailings and spiking spot rates the next. Volatility is now the norm for late 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, capacity management, shifting seasons, and rising fuel costs. Still, importers who understand these drivers and respond deliberately can seize new opportunities.
Below, we break down the main shifts on trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic ocean lanes, explain air cargo’s reliance on airline capacity and fuel, and detail ways procurement and logistics teams can protect costs and service.
Ocean Freight: soft markets, then sudden rebounds
For most of 2025, ocean rates trended lower compared to surges in 2021–2023. An oversupply of vessel capacity, slower import growth in several markets, and pre-peak seasonal shifts pressured spot markets throughout much of the year. But soft markets don’t mean rates only travel one way. Carriers have responded with tactical capacity management, including blank sailings, blanked strings, and targeted general rate increases when demand increases or regulatory fees change. These strategies often result in sudden, week-over-week rate rebounds on busy trade lanes.
The trans-Pacific routes (from Asia to the U.S. West Coast) have been the most sensitive to calendar shifts, such as Golden Week and holiday frontloading, as well as short-term policy or fee changes. When new port charges or regulatory changes occur, capacity tightens, and spot rates can rise abruptly before carriers adjust. The recent pattern of carriers trimming sailings to balance the market has produced short windows of higher spot pricing even in an otherwise soft market.
The trans-Atlantic corridor (from Europe to the East/Gulf Coast U.S.) behaves differently but is not immune. Capacity rerouting and equipment imbalances between Europe and North America, as well as shifting retail and industrial purchasing patterns, can lead to higher rates on a seasonal basis or in response to port disruptions. In short, even if average contract rates
Air freight: capacity and fuel — the twin levers of price
Air cargo behaves differently, but its price drivers are equally dynamic. Two big forces moved the market in 2025: airline capacity and jet fuel economics. Airlines expanded capacity from the post-COVID trough, but capacity growth has been uneven across regions and market segments. When demand spikes (think urgent replenishment, AOG parts, or seasonal e-commerce surges), spare capacity becomes tight quickly, and spot rates climb. Meanwhile, jet fuel — which was volatile in 2025 due to ripples in the energy market and rising costs of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) — adds another variable that carriers pass through as fuel surcharges or through yield management. (Get market-specific data from IATA+1)
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a growing cost factor: regulatory pushes and blending mandates in regions such as Europe have created new demand for higher-cost fuel blends, prompting airlines and IATA to flag significant incremental costs for 2025. Where SAF premiums are material, some carriers have introduced compliance or capacity surcharges that can push rates higher — particularly on lanes where SAF availability is limited. The energy dynamic, layered on top of uneven capacity, has made air cargo pricing more unpredictable.
What to expect through the end of 2025
As we head into the end of 2025, expect three persistent behaviors from carriers and markets. First, reactive capacity management: carriers will continue to trim sailings or deploy blank sailings to shore up rates whenever demand improves. Second, short, sharp spot spikes: those sea-lane rebounds will be fast and may evaporate as quickly as they appear, but they can be costly if you’re caught unhedged. Third, fuel-linked air surcharges and capacity premiums: airlines will pass through fuel or SAF costs and may prioritize contractual, high-yield customers when space is limited. Overall, expect the market to remain choppy, and securing favorable outcomes will require active management.
What importers should do now — an actionable playbook
- Blend contracting with spot agility. Maintain core flows on contracts to stabilize costs and service, while retaining a tactical spot/air buffer for critical parts or seasonal surges. Contracts, combined with a disciplined spot playbook, reduce exposure to sudden spikes.
- Track capacity-management moves as early triggers. Watch blank sailing announcements and indices for warning signs. When carriers cut, consider shifting some bookings to faster modes or re-routing to avoid costly backups.
- Hedge where possible on fuel exposure. Negotiate clearer surcharge governance in your contracts. For air, ask carriers for visibility on SAF surcharges and seek multi-carrier options to avoid being price-captive when a single airline faces higher fuel compliance costs.
- Build a lane-specific risk matrix. Create playbooks for trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, and intra-regional corridors that specify when to shift modes, consolidate, charter, or utilize air expedite services.
- Use consolidation and LCL for small volumes. Scheduled air consolidations or LCL ocean can cut unit cost and buffer spot rate swings.
- Invest in visibility and scenario planning. Real-time tracking, predictive ETAs, and scenario models enable you to proactively select the least-cost, least-risky option when carriers or fuel markets fluctuate.
Key takeaways: Expect ongoing volatility in ocean and air freight due to capacity management and fuel dynamics. Importers should develop flexible, lane-specific strategies that incorporate contracts, along with spot agility, real-time visibility, and scenario planning. Companies that treat rapid change as normal and respond proactively can turn market volatility into a competitive edge.
TOC Logistics is the full-service global freight forwarding division of the ProTrans group of companies. Our team focuses on inbound manufacturing with a heavy concentration on the East-West trade lanes, including air and ocean services. Contact our team today to learn more about our freight forwarding capabilities and established consolidation programs.